A bluff has to work often enough
When you bluff, you risk your bet to win the pot. The break-even point depends only on the two sizes: the bluff has to work bet ÷ (pot + bet) of the time. With 100 in the pot:
| Your bet | It has to work |
|---|---|
| Half pot (50) | 1 time in 3 (33%) |
| Three-quarter pot (75) | 3 times in 7 (43%) |
| Pot-size bet (100) | 1 time in 2 (50%) |
That is why smaller bluffs are cheaper to run: they need fewer folds. It is also the same math as pot odds, seen from the other side. The caller needs a certain chance to win; you need a certain chance that they fold.
Semi-bluffs: bluff with a backup plan
The best bluffing hands are not the worst ones. They are hands that can still improve. A flush draw has 9 outs, which is about a 35% chance to complete by the river from the flop (see outs and odds). Bet it, and you have two ways to win: they fold now, or they call and you hit. A pure bluff with nothing only has the first. That is a semi-bluff, and it can be profitable even when your opponent folds less often than the table above asks for.
Pick the right opponent
Bluffing only works against players who can fold. Reading their style comes first. In the Blindspot Poker player map, measured over 4,000 hands:
- Callum, the calling station, plays about 33% of hands and almost never raises. Do not bluff him. Bet your good hands bigger.
- Stone, the rock, plays about 3% of hands, so when he is in a pot he usually has a big hand. Steal his blinds with small raises, and fold to his bets and raises.
- Blaze, the maniac, plays more than half of all hands and bets constantly. Don't bluff back; call down with medium hands.
- Vega, the solid regular, plays about 10% of hands and raises half of them. He doesn't give much away, so avoid big pots without a big hand and pick on looser players instead.
See reading the table for how to measure VPIP and PFR yourself.
Pick the right spot
- Few opponents. Every extra player is another chance for someone to call. Bluffs work best heads-up.
- A story that fits. If you raised before the flop and the board has big cards, a bet is believable. If you called from the big blind and bet into a board of small cards, it is less so.
- Position. Acting last, you see them check first. A check usually means weakness. See poker position.
- Hands that block. Holding the ace of the flush suit means your opponent is less likely to have the nut flush, so they fold more often to your bet.
Don't bluff to win back a loss
One hand is mostly luck, and a bad beat does not change what is a good bet. Bluffing because you are annoyed is tilt. Decide on the math, the opponent and the spot, and judge the choice, not the result. The luck and swings lesson shows why even right decisions lose often.
Practice in a coached game, where the coach explains each call with its reason.